Hi Jdurg,
Exponential decay can be understood a little better when one considers that it is based on probabilty. Natural Decay is the opposite of natural growth. Consider a growing population. It is based on the cumulative probabilities of individuals being able to replicate more than once. Some produce no offspring, some one offspring, others more to varying degrees. The more individuals, the more capability for multireproduction exists. Thus, growth is not linear but exponential.
Same thing with decay. Some individuals atoms never decay. Some will decay faster than others. The more individuals, the greater the number that are available that can decay at the most probable rate.
Note: In your example of two atoms of uranium, it is not true that one will absolutely decay in so many years. The sample is so small that one, both or none might decay at any time. Predictable Probability is only accurate on large samples (like coin flipping).