The diagrams were helpful for thinking things through. In general it seems my thinking was leaning more toward thermodynamics, yours more toward kinetics. For example, in comparing substitution by water vs. substitution (hypothetically) by the bisulfate anion. Kinetically, the bisulfate anion might be favored, because the final product is formed immediately. The final product of the substitution by water is certainly more stable, but there's a kinetic barrier to get past in forming the intermediate with a positively charged oxygen.
I looked at my textbook again and realized they sort of explain this very question, just not directly. Even with a strong acid catalyst dehydration won't go to completion, because the hydrate is more stable and the rxn is easily reversable. The solution is to distill away the alkene: alcohols have a higher boiling point than alkenes so they stay in solution. I'd guess the bisulfate substitution product would have the same or higher boiling point than alcohol.
And just to clarify what I was saying before about homolytic cleavage:
probably true, but under the reaction conditions, any bond cleavage will be heterolytic. No radicals in this mechanism.
I was just using radical stability as a way to estimate bond dissociation energy for an unusual bond (R-Bisulfate), not saying the mechanism actually contained a radical. For example, allylic hydrogens have BDE's around 10 KCals/Mol lower than regular primary hydrogens. This is due to the stablized radical that's formed from cleavage of the allylic C-H bond. This is reflected in the thermodynamics of any reaction involving a molecules with allylic hydrogens, regardless of the mechanism.
Radical stability is just one factor in BDE's though. For example bonds between hydrogen and SP2/SP carbons are stronger because of the higher S character in the carbons' hybrid orbitals.
Sorry if you knew all that already, I just learned about this stuff and think it's pretty cool.