I see, that makes a little more sense. Two things: first, as I wrote above, a regular HF calculation won't work well at all with a free radical. So you should check and see if your calculation was unrestricted (or restricted open shell). If it wasn't, you probably have your answer right there. Second, bear in mind that the HF energy always deviates from the true value in the same direction: the HF energy is always greater than the true energy. This is often called the HF Limit. It is a natural consequence of the variational method for approximating wavefunctions. The point being that the sign of the deviation from the true value for the energy change of the reaction should, I imagine, depend on which participating molecule (your reactant or product) is deviating more. What I mean is the following:
Suppose you have a simple reaction A
B, with energy change ΔE determined by E
B - E
A. Now if you calculate the ΔE by the HF method you describe, you can define a error, call it Q, related to ΔE(exp) - ΔE(calc), with ΔE(exp) = E
B(exp) - E
A(exp) and ΔE(calc) = E
B(calc) - E
A(calc). Here, "calc" and "exp" refers to calculated and experimental, respectively. However you know that E
A(calc) - E
A(exp) > 0, and likewise for E
B, so the sign of Q should tell you which of A or B performs more poorly for the HF calculation, because Q = (E
B(exp) - E
B(calc)) - (E
A(exp) - E
A(calc)). If Q > 0, A performed worse because the absolute magnitude of (E
A(exp) - E
A(calc)) > absolute magnitude of (E
B(exp) - E
B(calc)); if Q < 0, B was worse for the opposite reason.
I can't quite tell from your post what the sign of Q is in this case (you said deviation of -310 kJ/mol, but is that the experimental minus the calculated or the calculated minus the experimental?).
(I hope I got all those signs right...)