Melting points are extremely complicated. I have read no single explanation - not to mention a method with numbers - that gives reasonable figures. This is known. A few teams try to progress on that.
A few elements that seem to work often:
- Polar groups make solids. Hydorgen bonds as well. Sure.
- Symmetric molecules are more solid.
- Branched molecules are more liquid, but that's complicated.
- Numerous isomers make liquids, similarly to eutectics or mixtures
- The relationship with the boiling point is very weak.
As it looks, the ease to solidify depends on each and every detail of the molecules that allows them to stack properly and have many attractive contact points. As stacking can be done with arbitrary position shift, orientation change... between neighbour molecules, the chances to determine it by hand are about zero.
Just one example:
(CH3)3CCH(CH3)2 melts at -100°C
(CH3)3CC(CH3)3 melts at +100°C
For your short alcohols, the most important factor is how the hydrogen bonds can operate among a network of molecules.