if the 'I' falls off because it's interacting with the polar H (partial +), how do i know whether it will stick to that H (as i have it in my pathway), or whether it will interact with the H just long enough for it to fall off and then not stick (as you have it in your pathway)?
I have seen similar reactions where the leaving group sticks to the electrophile (in this case), though i can't recall any specific ones off the top of my head, i don't know when a leaving group will fall off (due to some interaction with another species(electrophilic or nucleophilic)) and then stick to that species and when it won't. how do i tell what happens?
I agree with this premise. An SN1 reaction occurs well in the presence of water. It seems very plausible for an interaction between the protons of water and a halogen. However, I don't think this alters overall basicity. Although it seems inviting to think a negative charge results in basic properties, recall that neutral ammonia is more basic than all halides. Water and methanol are more basic than chloride, bromide, or iodide. I would have used a neural methanol to abstract the proton. I would consider this consistent with the equilibrium between HI and H2O favoring iodide and hydronium ions.
I think the difficulty is understanding weaker interactions. Even though HI ionizes in water, I don't think the free iodide will exist without interactions with bulk water. While we may write hydronium ions as though it exits as an isolated species, we should recognize that water has extensive hydrogen bonds and similar hydrogen bonds will be present for hydronium ions. It is messy to write H
+(H
2O)
n, but not including them does not mean they are not present. Although we may refer to relatively strong hydrogen bonds, weaker interactions probably also exist. The solvolysis of the iodine is likely an example.