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Topic: Monkeys typing out Shakespeare?  (Read 2615 times)

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Offline curiouscat

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Monkeys typing out Shakespeare?
« on: February 03, 2015, 02:47:57 PM »
http://cen.acs.org/articles/93/web/2015/02/Novel-Fluorinated-Surfactants-Discovered-FirefightersBlood.html

Analogous to monkeys typing Shakespeare given enough time & monkeys, do we always discover something given a researcher harvesting BigData?

Is every ppm level metabolite already indexed? Everything in that report sounds very speculative & tenuous. I'd almost bet they are publishing statistical noise. An artifact.
 
p-value hacking? Fishing for significance? If you test than 3,000 compunds, isn't it damn likely that some are at "significantly" higher levels in firefighters than control. In a group size of 20. Multiple comparisons?

Even calling those molecules " Pollutants" seems a big leap of faith.

Offline Corribus

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Re: Monkeys typing out Shakespeare?
« Reply #1 on: February 03, 2015, 03:13:46 PM »
Unfortunately the word "significant" has a different meaning for statisticians in particular, and scientists in general, than what it means in casual conversation. Most laypeople don't understand even basic statistics concepts, and are thus easily manipulated (on purpose or inadvertently) by media presentations of scientific findings.

The extreme sensitivity of our scientific toolset is a double-edged sword. If you look hard enough, you're likely to find something. But findings always have to be properly contextualized to understand their relevance, and this kind of scrutiny is often missed when it comes to reporting findings to the general public, or even scientific peers.
What men are poets who can speak of Jupiter if he were like a man, but if he is an immense spinning sphere of methane and ammonia must be silent?  - Richard P. Feynman

Offline Furanone

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Re: Monkeys typing out Shakespeare?
« Reply #2 on: February 03, 2015, 04:28:18 PM »
E=MC^2 was God speaking directly to Einstein, while these fluorinated surfactants found in firefighters blood was more like God mumbling to himself right after just waking up and those scientists kind of overheard it from a distance
"The true worth of an experimenter consists in pursuing not only what he seeks in his experiment, but also what he did not seek."

--Sir William Bragg (1862 - 1942)

Offline curiouscat

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Re: Monkeys typing out Shakespeare?
« Reply #3 on: February 03, 2015, 11:22:23 PM »
E=MC^2 was God speaking directly to Einstein, while these fluorinated surfactants found in firefighters blood was more like God mumbling to himself right after just waking up and those scientists kind of overheard it from a distance

More like God going "mumble mumble mumble" & the scientists hearing "Eureka Eureka Eureka". :)

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