Thank you both for the thoughtful answers:
To enthalpy: It did seem like the numbers were very close for those alkenes you mentioned. This question was specifically inspired by the dehydration of 1-cyclopentyl-1-ethanol in H2SO4. While looking over problems on practice exams for two different undergraduate organic chemistry classes, I saw two different answers for this question over a period of three days.
The first answer said hydride shift to form a tertiary carbocation, followed by elimination to create 1-ethylcyclopentene. This makes sense kinetically, because hydride has higher migratory aptitude, and also because it immediately makes a tertiary carbocation. This is the answer I predicted. The second answer was ring expansion to make a 6 atom ring secondary carbocation, which would lead to 1-methylcyclohexene. This makes sense thermodynamically, because the 6 membered ring is significantly more stable. The energy difference between those two products is very large. Based on heats of formation on NIST the difference is ~60 kJ/mol.
I could speculate that one product is kinetic and one is thermodynamic. Or, the one without the ring expansion is just non-sense, and it never forms. Certainly under some conditions it could eventually equilibrate to the larger ring.
To PGK: That's an interesting point about hydrogen bonding. I have wondered why in the monosaccharide form of fructose, it favors the pyranose form in water solvent (~70%/30%), and when fructose is part of the diasaccharide sucrose, fructose favors the furanose form. But I this could also happen just because the enzyme fits them together that way.