For any process, the total change in entropy, ΔStot = ΔSsys + ΔSsur, determines the spontaneity of a process.
If ΔStot > 0 the process occurs spontaneously. If ΔStot = 0 the process occurs reversibly. And, if ΔStot < 0, the process will not occur spontaneously.
Under the condition of constant pressure, these arguments reduce to the standard rules about ΔG.
(To answer your second question, for ΔG to be a predictor of spontaneity, I think the pressure of the system must be constant).