In general, you just have to know the reaction; there's no simple way of predicting. If you know about the bond energies of various chemical bonds, you can estimate whether there is an overall increase or decrease in bond energy, but in condensed phases you have to consider intermolecular interactions as well, and the approach doesn't really work for ionic compounds.
I'm not sure what level you're at (as you posted in the high school forum), but one approach in this case may be to say that as you go down from two molecules to one, there is probably a decrease in entropy, which means ΔH must be negative to ensure ΔG is negative.