[jeffmoonchop]

I work in the lipid nanoparticle space, where we deliver mRNA to produce healthy proteins in patients with genetic disorders. I believe we could easily switch to a vaccine program and here's my theory. No real question just thought I'd let people know if they're interested.

Coronavirus is basically a lipid nanoparticle. Its shell is covered in phospholipid and certain proteins. If we inject lipid nanoparticles with mRNA coded to those proteins, the body will produce them. The immune system will then produce antibodies against those proteins. Those antibodies will then hang around for when the actual virus comes along, and destroys it.

I think its the perfect vaccine because it doesn't involve using dead or weakened versions of the virus, with no risk of catching the disease. Let me know what you think.

[chenbeier]

If this works then it is great. Send your opinion to experts to WHO.

[Borek]

I read somewhere that the vaccine that is going to human trials is based on RNA, even without proteins. So it is not like the similar idea wasn't taken into account

[Yggdrasil]

This is essentially the approach that the company Moderna is taking, and they have already begun Phase I clinical trial to test the safety of their mRNA vaccine against the SARS-CoV-2 virus behind the COVID-19 outbreak (https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/11/researchers-rush-to-start-moderna-coronavirus-vaccine-trial-without-usual-animal-testing/).  However, it is worth noting that neither Moderna nor any other company has gotten any mRNA drug (vaccine or otherwise) through FDA approval.  Here's a nice article discussing where mRNA vaccine approaches have failed in the past: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-03072-8

[jeffmoonchop]

Thanks, I work for the company that pioneered the LNP technology that Moderna uses. Prior to the outbreak, we have been in lawsuits with them as they are using our technology despite patents. Moderna are much bigger though and have the resources to be able to get to trials quicker than us. At the moment though, I'm ok with it if it means finding a vaccine, but I would have preferred that Moderna did the right thing and worked with us on it.

[Enthalpy]

Hello you all!

Drifting a little bit from the topic, but still fitting the title...

The new Covid-19 virus strain, Omicron, has 32 mutations on the spike protein while the mainstream Delta has only 9. Enough to wonder if the mutations could accelerate that much naturally, and enough for some politicians to claim "we are at war".

Maybe the explanation is simple. Some 2/3 of the rich countries inhabitants are vaccinated presently. The vaccines do not prevent humans from catching the virus and spreading it, but they put a strong pressure to favour the mutated viruses in the meantime. This is exactly the undesired situation with antibiotics: to avoid it, doctors care to give enough antibiotics, and for long enough, to remove all the viruses, including the mutated ones. What do you think?

Beyond an explanation to the accelerated mutations, this should let reconsider the policies of mass vaccination. We still ignore how deadly the Omicron variant will be, but possibly a campaign targeting only the vulnerable people during and before the Delta waves would have reduced the deaths by limiting the mutations to the Omicron strain. Hard decision, since we can't characterize all vulnerable people.

Drugs taken once sick avoid this mutation pressure. Coming. One candidate prevents 90% deaths, as much as the good vaccines. If this drug gets widely available, it will be an incentive to limit the vaccination.

Stay safe!
Marc Schaefer, aka Enthalpy

[Borek]

The vaccines do not prevent humans from catching the virus and spreading it

Sure, they are not 100% effective, but they prevent enough infections to slow the virus spreading enough to avoid the problem.

There is a grain of truth in what you wrote about the situation favoring the mutated variants though, interesting take. Still, the best way to stop mutations is to stop the virus from spreading.

One candidate prevents 90% deaths

Sorry, but that sounds exactly like the BS spread by antivaxers. Do you have a proven and reliable data to list? Not to mention the fact it doesn't have to be effective against mutated variants, in which case we are back at square one.

Stay safe!

And vaccinate.

[Babcock_Hall]

https://www.science.org/content/blog-post/omicron-time
At In the Pipeline Derek Lowe has a good discussion of omicron and some thoughts on vaccines.

[Enthalpy]

Hey Borek, I'm a scientist, didn't you notice? I make my opinion by myself, independently of categories like "antivax" and imprecation like "BS". Neither do I care about what other people would expect me to say, nor in which category other people will put me.

The governments that now put pressure to get vaccinated have spread enough BS in a recent past ("masks are useless") that we should all feel the freedom and need to think by ourselves.

[Enthalpy]

https://www.science.org/content/blog-post/omicron-time
At In the Pipeline Derek Lowe has a good discussion of omicron and some thoughts on vaccines.

Nice reading, thanks Babcock-Hall!

I disagree with Derek Lowe's argument in the effect of vaccines against mutations.

He claims that a vaccines suppresses the virus hence the mutated variants
- BUT -
he forgets that the vaccinated person passes the virus, including the mutated variants, to other persons meanwhile.

As we saw early in Israel and the UK, the Covid does spread quite a lot in a heavily vaccinated population. In the UK with Astra Zeneca, the number of cases didn't even drop. The essential benefit is to reduce the ICU admissions and deaths.

With as many cases (or nearly) in the population, the argument of the vaccine suppressing the virus doesn't hold. But the vaccine does put mutation pressure on the virus.

[wildfyr]

There is a numbers game here you entirely neglect. A vaccinated person is both less likely to catch covid-19 in the first place, and less likely to pass it on even if infected. Neither number is zero, but its not a small effect either. the CDC found that you are about 20% as likely to be infected if you are vaccinated vs nonvaccinated (Sept 2021)

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7037e1.htm?s_cid=mm7037e1_w


And from the Netherlands RIVM
"The study shows that fully vaccinated people who test positive for SARS-CoV-2 despite vaccination are 63% less likely to transmit the virus to unvaccinated household members than people who also test positive but have not been vaccinated. In the period when the Alpha variant was dominant in the Netherlands, this difference was 73%. Vaccinated household members are less likely to be infected. In addition, transmission to vaccinated household members is also 40% lower from a vaccinated person than from an unvaccinated person, as the research findings show."
https://www.rivm.nl/en/news/vaccination-reduces-transmission-to-unvaccinated-household-members-by-63-for-delta-variant


So while there is selection pressure to skirt the vaccine, the fact that many more unvaccinated people get infected and pass it on still is worse on the whole because its a large pool for the virus to incubate in and produce god knows what, while killing people (primarily the unvaccinated, at 10x the rate). If everyone got the shots, the amount of circulating virus would drop much more rapidly because the R₀ would drop, hopefully below 1. So I very much refute your initial bolded point from a few days ago.

In addition:

I saw a very interesting video pointing out the lineage of omicon is entirely separate from Alpha, beta, and delta which emerged from one another in sequence or at least are closely interrelated. Omicron arose directly from the original virus identified back in Jan 2020. There are two hypotheses: 1. it was passed to an animal population, floated around there for a while, then recently passed to us 2. It was passed to a very immunocompromised individual(s) such as an HIV patient and was there for a while and finally broke back into the main population. No doubt there were many iterations between the original strain and omicron between then and now.

However the important point here is that this information indicates that avoidance of the vaccine is likely NOT the selection pressure it was exposed to during that intervening 1.5-2 years. If it has vaccine avoidance properties, it seems that is due more to the specificity of our vaccines for a particular spike protein rather than an evolutionary pressure.

[wildfyr]

I should mention also in Enthalpy's defense, there IS a drug candidate that prevents 90% of deaths. It will be approved shortly in the US. Did you not see this news? Pfizer's Paxlovid.

https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizers-novel-covid-19-oral-antiviral-treatment-candidate

Its not some snake oil like ivermectin. Its the real deal. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PF-07321332, combined with ritonavir, another antiviral that is actually just there to slow down metabolism of the PF-07321332.

In fact, this study was stopped because of the high efficacy, and no patients treated with the drug died during it, compared to 10 in control group.

It should be repeated that vaccinations cost about $15, while this course of drugs costs $700+, and I'd rather lower my chances of catching covid and reduce spread in the first place than have to treat it in all 7 billion+ people. Get your freaking shots everyone.

I also dispute that a drug has better selection pressure avoidance than vaccines. Your immune system is much more adaptable and approaches a problem from many more vectors than a drug does. This drug probably has a single mode of action, your immune system has many.

[billnotgatez]

..., while this course of drugs costs $700+, ...

Is that the cost to make it or the cost charged to recoup research costs.

[wildfyr]

*shrug* that is what is being charged to the U.S. government for them to distribute to hospitals. It isn't made from cheap or trivial starting materials, so frankly that price doesn't seem exorbitant. $700 is the cost for the entire treatment course. Its not $700/pill.

Pfizer also signed a deal to let manufacturers in some other countries make it without Pfizer getting a cut via a U.N. consortium

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/pfizer-covid-19-pill-other-companies-make/

"In a statement issued Tuesday, Pfizer said it would grant a license for the antiviral pill to the Geneva-based Medicines Patent Pool, which would let generic drug companies produce the pill for use in 95 countries, making up about 53% of the world's population.

The deal excludes some large countries that have suffered devastating coronavirus outbreaks. For example, while a Brazilian drug company could get a license to make the pill for export to other countries, the medicine could not be made generically for use in Brazil."

But it still better than a kick in the ass...