You problem is you have heat loss by various methods.
You have heat being transferred from the water to the beaker, and then the beaker to the air. Those both occur at different rates. And you have the water to direct air heat loss. And even some heat loss from the beaker to the surface it is sitting on. And everyone of these difference surfaces are at different temperatures, and behave differently at different temperatures!
This gets pretty complicated to actually model that. And engineers will tell you, only use the model when you can not measure, as it is the best method (to measure).