Most of making a reaction work in a research setting has to do with recognizing the similarities between the reaction you are trying to run and what has been done previously, using that to guide your choice of initial conditions, then paying very careful attention to the results that you get and using that and your analysis of the differences between your reaction and the literature procedure to drive your choice of conditions for your next attempt. For example, you have a reaction that begins with a base pulling a proton from your starting material, but the acidity of that proton in your molecule is lower than the nearest equivalent you could find in the literature; you might need to use a stronger base. Or you may have a second proton in your molecule which is even more acidic - you may need to use an extra equivalent of base and pull both protons before adding your second reagent.
As for your paragraph 4, there are other considerations than what part of the molecule is acting as the base. What happens to the ion that is formed when you have pulled the proton? Usually it is associated with the counterion - your sodium, potassium, or cesium. Cesium is much larger and "softer" than either sodium or potassium, which is frequently helpful in substitution reactions. Lithium, being less electronegative, has slightly more covalent character when it is a counterion, and although any alkali hydroxide can be used to saponify esters, LiOH gives me the best results in the lab for that reaction. And if you really don't want a metal around as a counterion, there are tricks to sequester the metal so it doesn't participate at all - for example, adding a crown ether. Solvent selection and temperature selection also may play a role in optimizing a reaction - if your reagent isn't as active as the literature example you think is closest, you may need to heat yours up more, or for a longer period of time. Getting good at following the progress of your reactions, whether by TLC, HPLC, LC-MS, or even color change is important in making your reactions work.
And sometimes you just don't know for sure what qualities you will need to improve your reaction, and you may have a choice of spending a lot of time doing library work, modeling, and calculations, or you may just go into the lab and set up a dozen small-scale reactions with a dozen different bases to see which one works best. I had one supervisor that used to say "15 minutes in the library would save you a week in the lab" when he thought I was spending too much time running reactions that weren't working, and "15 minutes in the lab would save you a week in the library" when he thought I was over-thinking a reaction.