Just think of the reaction CO
32- O
2- + CO
2(g)
The carbonate ion is in a resonance structure, with all oxygens being equivalent. This makes carbonate in principle a pretty stable structure. In fact, the primary driver for decomposition of carbonate is really entropy, because CO
2 is a very stable gas. Otherwise, carbonate is pretty stable from an enthalpic point of view.
The stability of carbonate to heat is going to depend, then, on how easy it is to break the carbonate apart and form carbon dioxide. This requires breaking one of the C-O bonds to give an isolated oxygen with a -2 formal charge. In completely isolated carbonate, each bond has an order somewhere between a sigma and pi bond, and each oxygen has a formal charge of 2/3. (Two negative charges delocalized over three oxygen atoms.) For the reaction above to proceed then, you have to break a pretty strong "almost pi pond" and concentrate a whole lot of electron density that is spread over a fairly large molecule onto a single oxygen atom, all in one shot. Breaking a strong bond + large electronic rearrangement = needs lot of energy to happen. That's a fairly unfavorable process, and the only reason it happens at all is because of the entropic driving force, which gets greater at higher temperatures.
But let's not confuse things with entropy - we'll assume that doesn't change as a function of the counterion. That means to determine relative stability we only need to consider the enthalpy, which is related to the actual breaking of bonds and rearrangement of electron density. With me so far?
Ok, so where does polarisation come in? Well, as we've said, a neutral carbonate is very enthalpically stable. Takes a lot of energy to break one of those bonds and rearrange the electron density. However one thing I'll point out is that polarization of the electron density is just another way of saying "rearrange the electron density". In fact, polarization of carbonate is
required to make it decompose into oxide and carbon dioxide. You have to put two formal charges on one oxygen, leaving the rest of the molecule neutral. That's the very definition of polarization. So, if you have a situation where carbonate starts off partially polarized, that is, with a lot of electron density already on one of the oxygen atoms, then you're already halfway to decomposition. In the limit of
complete polarization, all electron density is localized on one oxygen already, and there is no bond at all between that oxygen and the carbon - the bond order is zero. The reaction has already happened in that case. In essence, in a carbonate that's already partially polarized, the bond order of the C-O bond is reduced (and the bond order of the other two C-O bonds is increased) and the amount of electronic rearrangement that must still occur for decomposition is less, which translates into less energy required for the reaction to go - which means the carbonate is enthalpically less stable and the driving force for reaction is greater.
This is the impact of polarization. Counterions which have small, compact charges - like berylium - polarize carbonate to a much greater degree than counterions which have large, diffuse charges - like barium. Therefore we can say that in calcium carbonate, the carbonate is already highly polarized, the C-O bond that needs to break is significantly reduced in bond order, and the electronic arrangement already partially resembles that of the product. The amount of energy to drive the reaction is therefore small, and the compound is therefore relatively unstable. On the other hand, in barium carbonate, the carbonate is less polarized, the C-O bond that needs to break is closer to that of a strong pi bond, and the electronic arrangement is highly delocalized. This translates into a a large amount of energy needed to drive the reaction, and the compound is therefore relatively stable.
In general, the degree of covalency increases as you go down a group, because orbitals are more diffuse and shielding by core electrons is greater. Therefore we might say that the bond covalency between the counterion and carbonate is correlated with carbonate stability. This makes sense: polarization in bonds with high covalent character is less than polarization in bond with high ionic character. More covalent bonds have less polarization, which renders carbonate more stable. Which explains the trends observed.
So: "highly polarized" means "less covalent", which should agree with your data book, right?
Does this clarify things for you?