I speak under correction as I learned my org chem a long time ago and have forgotten a lot of it, but as nobody else has replied here is what I think.
I would say that reaction proceeds by the standard acid-catalysed hydrolysis of one acetal and the standard acid-catalysed formation of the other (driven perhaps by distilling off the acetone). Characteristics of this mechanism, compared with yours, include:
1. The carbonyl oxygen arrives or departs as H2O.
2. The carbonyl oxygen does not at any point (while it is in the form of a carbonyl oxygen) act as a nucleophile. (That's something I don't remember coming across at all.)
3. No Me-O bonds are formed or broken at any stage, only bonds between O and the carbonyl carbon.
March (again, 80s edition...) cites several pieces of evidence for this mechanism.
Possibly orthoesters may behave differently, and as the mechanism you show doesn't mention water, perhaps it is applicable to anhydrous conditions. But the question mentions water.
I would be interested to be contradicted.