When in doubt, it helps to view real data. Because the discussion piqued my interest, I plotted the heats of combustion of a number of common organic solvents as a function of their corresponding flash points. The heats of combustion I found predominantly from NIST sources, and the flash points were taken from my CRC where available, and Wikipedia where they weren't. The result is the top scatter plot at the end of this post.
For my part, I discern very little correlation between the two parameters, leading me to throw in my support to the argument that combustion enthalpies aren't very relevant in a discussion about flash points. At the least, it seems virtually impossible to make any qualitative, let along quantitative, prediction about the flash point purely from heat of combustion values. We may turn to some representative examples, highlighted conveniently in blue and green for the butanols and amyl alcohols (a few of them, anyway), respectively. It is apparent that although members of these groups have virtually identical heats of combustion (within their respective classes), the flash points vary quite a bit.
In hindsight, all of this makes pretty good sense. Combustion happens in the gas phase (even for a liquid, which needs to be aerosolized or vaporized; solids typically undergo pyrolysis first to produce gas-phase combustible fuels). The heat of combustion is predominantly a representation of the difference between the sum total bond energies for the reactant hydrocarbon (and oxygen) and those for the products, minus any angle strain energies that might be involved, all in the gas phase. That is to say, it involves almost exclusively intramolecular electrostatic energy contributions. Any interactions between molecules are negligible, because combustion happens in the gas phase. Where the oxygen is.
The flash point of a liquid, on the other hand, depends to great extent on its vapor pressure, which in turn has a lot to do with intermolecular interactions in the liquid state. This is why the four amyl alcohols can have almost the same combustion enthalpy but very different flash points. When they are in the gas phase, the differences between these alcohols are very subtle, at least as far as structural energies are concerned, but in the liquid phase the position of the alcohol group changes the nature of intermolecular interactions substantially, leading to very big different in properties like boiling point and vapor pressure, which impact the flash point to a considerable degree. In fact, if we plot the boiling points of these solvents by flash point, you will see there is a reasonably good, though not perfect, correlation. (Bottom figure below.)
So, while there might be a very weak positive correlation between heat of combustion and flash point evident in the scatter plot, the impact of intermolecular interactions in the liquid state obscures this correlation almost completely. Insofar as the intermolecular interactions in the liquid state would be very hard to calculate a priori without sophisticated computer packages, flash point is certainly a quantity that is better off measured experimentally, especially for mixtures. If anything, you should be using the boiling point as a rough estimate of what the flash point would be.
(NB, By mistake, I colored the amyl alcohol points green in the upper plot but teal in the lower plot.)