I made these predictions before all the friendly matches you're talking about, because I didn't want to be influenced by them.
I think Australia can be the surprise team of this edition because of their coach. Guus Hiddink is a class of his own, when it comes to underdog national teams because of his international experience. Moreover Australia have talented players such Bresciano, Cahill and Kewell.
Croatia may overcome their lack of talent with their fighting ethos. But, still, I would bet on Australia moving up to second round.
Poland are in an easy group. That's it. I'm looking forward to watching Smolarek playing. Ecuador have little international experience and no great player.
Poland will have extra energies from their supporters (on the other hand, I read dreadfull things about Polish hooligans).